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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

One year on from the October 7 attacks against Israel, the region is bracing for more war.

It seems almost certain Israel will launch a retaliatory attack against Iran, after it fired ballistic missiles at Israel last week.

Meanwhile, over the weekend, Israel continued its airstrikes on Lebanon, with multiple explosions reported in the suburbs of the capital Beirut.

Today, Israel correspondent for The Economist Anshel Pfeffer, on where the Middle East is headed and how, or if, the fighting can end.

It’s Monday, October 7.

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RUBY:

So Anshel, right now it's Sunday morning where you are in Jerusalem, one day out from the anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel that began this chapter of conflict in the Middle East. What is it like in Israel at this moment?

ANSHEL:

Well, it's hard to properly, I think, mark the date, both because there really is still such a heavy feeling of trauma which really hasn’t dissipated here for an entire year of that date and, you know, many Israelis are saying that they still feel that they're still living in October 7. A writer who wrote that today's the 307th day of October and still for many, many Israelis there isn't the feeling yet perspective of time that's passed. I think what really is making that so difficult, to gain that perspective, is that the country is still at war and not just the war in Gaza. Now we're talking about a war which has rapidly escalated in the next few weeks with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

RUBY:

Can you tell me about the last few days in Lebanon? What's been happening?

ANSHEL:

I mean, the news is on everybody's screen around the world.

Audio excerpt — News Reporter:

“Tensions remain high in the Middle East following further Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and the occupied West Bank overnight.”

ANSHEL:

Israel has been carrying out a much wider campaign of airstrikes, which are aimed at destroying as much of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in Lebanon. Sadly, that also means a lot of suffering for civilians, because most of Hezbollah's military infrastructure, missile arsenals and launchers, were built under cities and villages and towns.

Audio excerpt — News Reporter:

“War in the skies and now on land too. Israel’s first full-scale ground incursion into Lebanon in nearly two decades on Monday night met little resistance.”

ANSHEL:

And on the ground the Israeli forces went in almost a week ago by now and began what the Israeli army says is limited operations to clear the border area from Hezbollah launchers and tunnels and positions which were threatening Israeli communities on the Israeli side of the border.

RUBY:

And as you said, Israel is now at war on many fronts in Lebanon but also still in Gaza. So how has this escalation against Hezbollah impacted what we're seeing on the ground in Gaza?

ANSHEL:

I think that the relative scaling down of the ground operations in Gaza and the fact that Israel is now deploying a much smaller force there than it did at the height of the war nine or 10 months ago, has also enabled Israel to pivot away from Gaza and focus on Lebanon. We're still seeing Israeli presence in the two main corridors. And then there are occasional raids and operations in various parts of Gaza against places where Hamas has re-established its presence. So that dynamic has been the situation for a few months by now. And that there is an argument within the Israeli leadership, mainly between the military, the generals, the security chiefs and Netanyahu and part of his government over whether Israel can actually wind down the operations in Gaza totally and try and reach some kind of ceasefire agreement, which will also enable the release of the Israeli hostages there. So we're in that almost twilight period now in Gaza. There still is a war, but the scale is more than it was before. And one Israeli general described it in an off record conversation a few days ago as stagnation, that the Israeli army isn't really happy with that sort of unclear situation. They want a clearer goal there, which is not being provided by the government.

RUBY:

And last week we saw Iran’s largest ever attack on Israel with missiles aimed at military bases. Those missiles were mostly intercepted but how significant was the fact of Iran’s intervention?

ANSHEL:

Well, Iran has been a presence in this conflict from the start. Iran was a major backer of Hamas. They supplied a lot of the know-how, a lot of the money for Hamas’ arms which were used on October 7th, supplied the inspiration. On the other hand, Iran almost certainly wasn't part of the actual decision to launch October 7th. And the timing doesn't seem to have been very convenient for them because their strategy has always been a much more gradual strategy of building up these capabilities and then when Hamas rushed ahead on October 7th, that probably wasn't the best of timing for them. I think they perhaps would have preferred to do this in a more coordinated way.

And the fact that Iran has now twice, back in April and then last week, launched these salvos missiles at Israel means we're at a new stage where it's not just Iran arming and directing its proxies to fire in Israel but they've also fired themselves and, you know, the missile strike didn't have that much of an impact. But what it has done is it has made it clear that we are now at this stage of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, and Israel is now going to have to retaliate this in some, in fact, some Israeli military chiefs and I think Netanyahu himself were actually quite pleased that they have this opportunity or, what they'd call, a legitimacy to strike directly against Iran. And that's... that's a whole new stage of this war that we're still waiting to see how it plays out.

RUBY:

Coming up after the break, Benjamin Netanyahu’s calculations on when and how to attack Iran.

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RUBY:

Anshel, Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel has a, quote, “duty” to strike back against Iran and will do so. And he also said “there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach”. So, tell me, what do you think the calculations are that Netanyahu now he is making as he decides in this moment how to respond to Iran?

ANSHEL:

Well, I think there are three calculations here. One is what indeed are Israel’s capabilities under Netanyahu and other Israeli chiefs have said that Israel can hit anywhere in the Middle East. Technically it’s true. So that's the operational calculation. Then there's a wider international calculation. Any serious type of operation is, or would need, some level of cooperation from the Americans and perhaps some of the other allies both here in the region and international allies. The question is, what are they willing to do? What kind of operation are they willing to take, to cooperate in. That limits what Israel can do. And then the third calculation is what Israel should do with this opportunity. And as far as Netanyahu is concerned, the way he sees it, the Iranian strike last week has giving him an opportunity and there are many things he'd like to do with this, sort of, justified retaliation. And that's why we're hearing talk, and I know this is something that is being discussed, of Israel also going against Iran's jewel in the crown, the nuclear sites, which is something obviously that American and other Western allies are perhaps less eager to see happen at this point.

RUBY:

Anshel, Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to destroy Hamas and bring all of the hostages home. He hasn’t been able to do that. So as the war has expanded, how have Israel's stated aims changed and what are they now?

ANSHEL:

Well, the stated aims at the beginning were to destroy Hamas's military capabilities and its governance in Gaza and to return the hostages and a couple of weeks ago, they added another aim, to allow Israeli citizens in the north to return to their homes. Those 60 to 70,000 Israelis who were forced to leave their homes in northern Israel because of Hezbollah firing rockets on their homes. So that's the addition of Lebanon to the war aims, is the one change here. But the truth is that the war aims are sort of these words on a piece of paper or in a government statement. The real question of what’s the end game, how Israel sees Gaza, sees its relationship with Gaza on the day after this war. Same thing with Lebanon. What kind of ceasefire with Hezbollah will allow an end to the war in Lebanon and for the return of Israeli citizens there and for obviously for the return of Lebanese citizens who have been uprooted by this war. None of these things are clear. None of these things have been stated. In the same way that we still don't know beyond these slogans of “Israel will retaliate forcefully against Iran”, we don't really know what the Israeli government is hoping to achieve in this retaliation. Yes, there will be a retaliation but then what? Will this just be a spiralling series of attacks going back and forth over to some point, which Israel will feel that that is achieved what it needs to achieve? So, you know, you can talk about war aims but the problem is that there's no clarity really on that.

RUBY:

So, Anshel, as we speak, the entire region is on a knife’s edge. We've heard Israel promise a retaliatory attack on Iran. Iran, in turn, has said that any attack would be met with a quote “unconventional response from them”. So this is the most tense moment in the Middle East in decades. Can you see a way that this situation could de-escalate? Is that even still possible at this moment?

ANSHEL:

I think it would be very, very premature to predict a de-escalation because every point over the last year where we thought, oh, maybe here we could reach some kind of a deal or de-escalation, something happened to further escalate matters. And even, as I said before, when Gaza seemed to be winding down, then Hezbollah and Lebanon escalated and Iran escalated. So there isn't one easy path here out of this. And with Iran, the real question is, what's their calculation? Do they have a point where they feel that also they’re going to unleash everything that they have? Or is the pressure on them, and they have their own issues at home, they've got an economy which is on the brink of collapse. They've got a lot of unrest within Iran. Does that at some point deter them from escalating that obviously is to do with what Israel's going to do? How calibrated will Israel's response be? And look, you know, look for almost ten months or so, that Hezbollah and Iran is sort of keeping to this very measured type of warfare. Iran didn't fire directly except once in April. Hezbollah fired only at Israeli communities and bases near the border. And they made this assumption that Israel wouldn't escalate because Israel would fear Hezbollah’s missiles attack and hitting Tel Aviv and so on. That turned out to be a mistake by Hezbollah and Iran. And Hassan Nasrallah has now paid for that mistake with his life.

So at some point, you know, the sides will have to step back. Their calculations until now have proven to be wrong. They haven't managed to calibrate their responses to allowing that room for manoeuvre and for walking back from the brink, which is why we are at this point we are now.

And I don’t think that it's going to be at all simple to de-escalate. I certainly think that for the next days and weeks, Israel will be using this opportunity, certainly in Lebanon, to continue striking at Hezbollah’s infrastructure there. The real question is, can Iran sort of say, okay, we fire these missiles against Israel, we hit them, and whatever Israel does now, we take what we've done as our win.

And like I say, it very much depends on what Israel does next. And so, I'm really sorry, but I can't give you any kind of positive idea of a de-escalation right now because I don’t see one.

RUBY:

Anshel, thank you so much for your time.

ANSHEL:

Thank you. I'm sorry I couldn't give you any kind of optimistic outlook, but there isn’t one right now.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today...

Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters gathered in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide yesterday.

Around 7,000 people attended the demonstration in Melbourne and police said they were overall pleased with the behaviour of attendees, although four people were arrested for public order related matters.

In NSW, police had initially sought to block the Sydney rally from going ahead, but an agreement was reached with organisers to march an alternate route away from the Great Synagogue, Sydney’s oldest Jewish congregation.

The ABC reports that one man was arrested in Sydney for carrying an Israeli flag with a swastika in place of the Star of David.

And,

Donald Trump has held a campaign rally in Pennsylvania at the exact place he was nearly assassinated in July. Pennsylvania is a critical swing state in this year’s Presidential election.

Mr Trump picked up where he left off, after the bullet grazed his ear, beginning his speech with the words “as I was saying” and continuing to discuss immigration, which he had been talking about when he was shot at.

Elon Musk was present in the crowd, with the billionaire jumping on stage at one point and declaring that Mr Trump had “saved free speech”.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. Thanks for listening.

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